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ANALYSTS
RECOMMENDATIONS.
Can someone please
explain to me the reason why analysts issue buy
recommendations on stocks when they're at all
time highs, and sell recommendations on stocks at all
time lows? Brokers, investment advisors, mutual
funds, etc, are all part of the money machine. Your
broker has little knowledge and just passes along
the buy and sell orders he gets from the top. Your
investment advisor which you hired to guide and
protect you, gets a commission from the mutual fund
he puts you into. Need I say more?
STOP LOSS
ORDERS.
The
market is volatile, and investors should not use
stop loss orders. You either like the stock
and are willing to ride the volatility, or just
don’t buy it.
The original idea was to protect investors from
losing money to volatile investments. Sounds
reasonable, but in reality stop losses have a major
impact on how investors operate. Instead of
evaluating investments based on value, the concept
now is, "Let's buy it, and if it falls I'll
only lose 10% as my stop loss gets hit." The problem
with this kind of thinking is that instead of
accumulating winners, you are creating a system
biased toward accumulating losses.
SCALING IN.
The number one mistake among investors is not
picking the wrong stock, it's not scaling in
properly. I
strongly believe in scaling into a position, buying
into high quality stocks. Most investors make the
tragic mistake of putting too much money and energy
into their first buy, emotionally committing
themselves to being right. When things go wrong and
they often do, they are left paralyzed.
THE URGE
TO TRADE. is strong for most people; they want
constant action. The problem? Great picks don't come
up every day. Idle periods are part of the
business. You may be tempted to take on a lesser
trade, only to regret it later.
As a rule, a lesser
trade will go against you at the worst possible
time. Finally, when a great pick does come along,
you want to be cash rich and emotionally clean.
The last thing you need is a preoccupation with
a deteriorating position.
SUPPORT. as most investors view,
it's a
fallacy. Support is only a temporary stop that can
be mathematically calculated. To think that there is
such a thing as long term support is as naive as the
belief that a company will always deliver on its
projected earnings.
THE
CROWD.
Don't
join the crowd, as the crowd is rarely right. A
Message Board is an incubator for emotional
investors focusing on the wrong events and the wrong
consequences. Very little valuable information can
ever be gotten in a message board, but you can
certainly measure sentiments. REMEMBER: True
bottom is often a non news event, and is
typically mathematical in nature. By the time the
average investor realizes he missed the bottom it's
too late. What happened, what was the news? There
was none, see you next time. Spend
one week listening to 100 would be experts, and
before you know it, you will have lost your own
conviction. Don't join the crowd; the crowd is
rarely right.
REALITY
CHECK.
Stocks rarely crash for no reason, and no message
board uproar will change the fact that you may be
missing some key vital information soon to be
known. The numbers never lie, and if your stock
crashed, it probably happened for a very good
reason. It's a strong bet, that following a false
rebound the stock will fall even further. The simple
truth is, neither the shorts, nor the longs win when
jumping into a high volatility situation. The best
play is to do nothing and wait for the volatility to
die down.
TIME. If you're
losing $$$ on your stock, it simply means you bought
it at the wrong time... "the wrong time" usually
being
when everybody else wants it. If you
sell it now at the low, 12 months from now when it's
back at the 52 week high you'll not only have bought
it at the wrong time, but did worse by selling it at
the worst time as well. Keep in mind, If you buy a
$1.00 Christmas card for $.25 on December 26th, it's
not worthless. It's safe to say that 11 months from
now it will be worth at least $1.00, or 4 times what
you paid for it. Is a $300.00 winter coat bought in
May for $150 a bad investment? Or will it be just as
warm, soft, and valuable 6 months later?
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